Trump takes down Hillary in stunning election

Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Photo

Trump meets with President Obama at the White House on Thursday, November 10.

Robby Ollari, Editor-in-Chief

Literally no one predicted this one.

On the morning of Election Day, Tuesday, November 8, The New York Times’ Upshot election forecast estimated that Donald J. Trump had a 15 percent chance of becoming the 45th President of the United States.

The Upshot forecast in the NYT, which gave Trump a 15% chance to overtake Clinton.

All signs pointed to a victory for Hillary Clinton, with the mainstream media and polls maintaining Clinton had the edge over her opponent almost all throughout the campaign.

Yet a few hours after midnight, Trump shocked the nation and crossed the 270 electoral vote threshold, pulling off a shocking upset and (finally) ending a nasty race to the Oval Office.

In the historic election, Trump defeated Clinton 290-228 in electoral votes, despite Clinton taking the popular vote (47.7 to 47.5 percent) according to The New York Times’ final results.

The NYT's electoral map.
The NYT’s electoral map.

Many Americans are not taking the news well, as reaction nationwide has generally been negative.

Kwame Jarvis, a junior at AIC, gave his thoughts on the election.

“I’m just shocked with the outcome, I really didn’t see this coming at all,” Jarvis said. “I don’t even think Trump saw this coming.”

Jarvis criticized the result – a result in which a billionaire businessman with no previous political experience came out on top.

“How do you elect a celebrity reality TV star as President with no military or political background?” Jarvis asked. “So you’re telling me that I can walk in and be President if I have enough money? This just shows that money rules the world.”

Not even 24 hours after Trump’s upset victory, riots and protests broke out all across major cities from coast to coast, clogging city streets.

Many protesters have even inexplicably burned the American flag.

“People are really taking it too far, like burning the flag,” said Jarvis. “People do feel they’ve been done wrong, but they shouldn’t resort to destruction and violence.”

While many have been vocal in their displeasure with the results, there are others out there who backed the Republican Party all along.

Senior Rebecca Gray – the Student Body President at AIC – voted for Trump. She shared her thoughts on the election.

“I am so excited about the results,” Gray said. “I think that for awhile the mainstream media has portrayed the conservative movement and the Republican Party as sort of a dying movement.”

Gray, a resident of swing state New Hampshire, called the media out for their coverage of Trump.

“It portrayed Trump’s entire campaign as extremely divisive and controversial and failed to acknowledge how his sentiments were heard, and really resonated with people in our country who are tired of big government and sell-out politicians,” said Gray.

Jarvis spoke of Trump’s ability to resonate with his supporters.

“He’s brilliant in how he came off to his supporters,” Jarvis said. “You knew that if he came off more arrogant and blunt, it would make his supporters happy.”

Trump at his victory party.
Courtesy CNN
Trump at his victory party.

Gray conceded that while Trump may not have run the friendliest campaign, perhaps his victory showed that the Republican Party is more unified than expected.

“I’m not going to say his campaign wasn’t controversial,” Gray said. “But at least for the Republican Party, if we can win with a candidate like that, our party is a lot stronger than we’ve thought.”

With several different emotions flowing – in the wake of the most stunning election of all time – it’s hard to put things in perspective and actually analyze what happened and what to expect down the road.

Professor Julie Walsh, chair of the Political Science department at AIC, offered some insight on what unfolded Tuesday night.

Walsh believes that from day one, the media fed the monster and by continuing to cover Trump so aggressively, it didn’t really hurt the businessman-turned-President.

“Trump really benefitted from the amount of media coverage he got in the nomination contest – he got more coverage than any other candidate, and that got his name out there,” Walsh said. “I do think he stuck with the adage that there’s no coverage that’s bad coverage.”

Walsh said that Trump’s success with the white working class, the shift from red to blue in the Midwest and Northern swing states helped propel him to victory – in addition to his surprising upset in Florida.

“One of the surprises in Florida is that while Latinos supported Clinton, [it was] not to the same degree they supported Barack Obama,” said Walsh. “There’s a 5 point difference in some of the exit polls, and that certainly could have impacted a state like Florida. Obama had 70 percent in 2012, and Clinton only had 65 percent, so the pick-up is with the Republicans, which is surprising given the nature of his campaign.”

It’s clear that the polls never favored Trump and routinely projected a Clinton victory. With Trump pulling off the upset – in landslide fashion – how can we trust this system when it’s time to do this all over again in four years?

“There’s been a lot of speculation about the polls,” Walsh said. “We had a major October surprise with the [James] Comey [FBI] announcement. That then tightened the race by a lot.

“I think it fit his narrative beautifully about her being a criminal, so there was kind of a late break towards him,” Walsh added.

According to Walsh, the late movement could have been hard to catch. Also, third party candidate Gary Johnson “polled higher than a third party should have,” and ended up with only three percent of the vote – meaning that many Republicans may have said they were in on the Libertarian candidate, but in the end, voted for Trump.

The polls may have underestimated the amount of people without college degrees in the electorate, expecting there to be a much lower turnout of this demographic.

Were Trump voters concealing their votes from the pollsters?

“At least here, in Massachusetts, that could be true, but I’m not as sure it’s true in some of the states in the rural areas where he won,” Walsh said. “Mass. went something like 65 percent for Clinton, so this is an area where people would be reluctant to say it.”

Walsh said to keep an eye out for Trump’s decisions on who he appoints to the Cabinet.

“It’s going to be really interesting to watch who Trump puts in the Cabinet departments, because that’s going to be the first signal where he’s going,” said Walsh. “He’s going to have to put people who have some level of experience in foreign policy.

“Who he puts around him is going to be very important, and who has the controlling influence. It’s going to be really interesting to see how that all plays out,” Walsh added.

Student Body President Gray believes in Trump’s ability to assemble a solid staff around him.

“Throughout his career, he’s surrounded himself with some of the most intelligent and qualified people,” Gray said. “I am confident he will do the same with his Cabinet.”

As for the issues, there’s a lot on the table, at least according to Trump’s campaign.

Walsh said Trump’s biggest challenge will be economic policy due to his protectionist platform against free trade, conflicting with establishment Republicans.

Immigration was also a hot topic for Trump along the campaign trail.

“I think he’ll try to do something with immigration, he’ll do something to act on it,” Walsh said. “I don’t think they’re going to be funding a wall, but you never know,” she added.

Trump will look to appoint a conservative to the Supreme Court – another hot-button issue.

Trump shaking hands with Obama.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Photo
Trump shaking hands with Obama.

Many have feared that the gay marriage ruling from the Court is in jeopardy, but not so fast.

“[LGBTQ is] the one group he didn’t attack as openly as others. Some of the things his supporters said were really derogatory towards gays, so some of his supporters might not be in alignment with Trump,” Walsh said.

“The Supreme Court ruled that it’s a matter of equal protection and it’s a right, and Donald Trump does not have the power to overturn that,” she explained. “Anthony Kennedy wrote that decision, and five people who are still on the court have said that gay marriage is a right.”

While the LGBTQ situation is important, there is nothing Trump can do about it. Issues such as immigration, what’s going to happen with deportation, foreign policy, and other domestic issues will likely be at the forefront for Trump.

Gray commented on her thoughts regarding Trump’s campaign promises.

“I can’t wait for education reform that makes sense and term limits to be proposed,” said Gray. “I am relieved that for at least another four years, our Second Amendment rights are safe.

“I am also looking forward to more secure borders. While I believe in immigration, there needs to be a legal process that’s respected,” Gray said.

After the major upset, the pressure is now on Trump to perform, despite a divided country that likely won’t be warming up to him thanks to his bombastic style.

“This was a really tough election,” Walsh said. “Donald Trump said things in this campaign that were hurtful to large groups of people in the country, so there’s some fear that’s out there and there’s a great unknown. Civility really got brought down in this election.”

Should be an interesting four years …